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I am also very engaged in the Arena Subreddit community, also happy to chat MTG

(In fact, weve so far already implicitly assumed some rudimentary player strategy: namely that if we can play a land, we do so.) If we're to account for all these different factors, its going to be practically impossible to get an analytical answer, i.e., an answer in the form of a neat little formula like the distribution function of the binomial or hypergeometric distribution

All creatures on the battlefield are destroyed

We beat Gene comprehensively through sheer luck, as he continually tries to Leer me with Rhydon to stall out Paras, and fails the coin flip 5 times straight

Normally, this means the token will simply be a Phoenix Fleet Airship, but if any copy effects have affected that Phoenix Fleet Airship, they're taken into account